Grasping the new normal to promote the transformation and upgrading of the steel industry

On July 9, 2015, the second executive director (expansion) meeting of the 5th China Iron and Steel Industry Association was held in Beijing. Zhang Guangning, president of China Iron and Steel Association, comprehensively analyzed the operation of China's steel industry in the first half of the year and the situation and key tasks facing the industry in the second half of the year. The main contents of the report are as follows to readers.

New situation and new problems in the operation of the steel industry in the first half of the year

Crude steel production fell for the first time in nearly 20 years, and production consumption entered the peak platform area. From January to May, the country's crude steel output was 340 million tons, down 1.6% year-on-year, which was the first decline in the past 20 years. At present, China's per capita crude steel output exceeds 600 kg. According to the general rule of the trend of crude steel production in developed countries, China's crude steel output is likely to have entered the peak zone in 2014, and will fluctuate around the peak after a certain period of time. trend. In 2013, China's apparent consumption of crude steel increased by 7.1% year-on-year, 3.29% year-on-year in 2014, and 5.1% year-on-year in January-May 2015. The characteristics of China's apparent consumption of crude steel entering the peak zone are obvious, and the sharp increase in market demand has become history.

Steel prices continue to hit new lows. Since 2014, steel prices in the domestic market have continued to fall, and since 2015, the downward trend has become more intense. The steel price index has continued to break through the low point since the index was recorded, and the decline has exceeded the full year of 2014. At the end of June, the average price decreased by 853 yuan per ton compared with the end of the previous year. The galvanized sheet decreased by 851 yuan per ton, the hot rolled coil decreased by 704 yuan per ton, the rebar decreased by 595 yuan per ton, and the high line decreased per ton. 564 yuan.

Iron ore prices deviate from steel prices. After April, iron ore prices rebounded rapidly. China's iron ore price index has risen from 46.84 US dollars per ton on April 10 to 59.19 US dollars per ton at the end of June, an increase of 26.37%, while the comprehensive steel price index for the same period. It fell by 10.21%, and the price of minerals deviated from the trend of steel prices. By studying the correlation between iron ore inventory and mineral prices of some member companies, it is found that the price of minerals has fallen, the inventory of enterprises has fallen, the price of minerals has risen, and the inventory of enterprises has risen, reflecting the purchasing psychology of buying up and not buying down. The concentrated replenishment and centralized procurement of iron and steel enterprises have played a role in boosting the price of minerals.

The loss of the main business of member steel companies has intensified. From January to May, member steel enterprises realized sales income of 1.3 trillion yuan, down 16.9% year-on-year; realized profits and taxes of 32.221 billion yuan, up 1.18% year-on-year; realized profit and loss after total profit of 528 million yuan, while the main business loss was 16.481 billion yuan. Yuan, increased losses by 10.361 billion yuan; 40 households with loss-making enterprises, accounting for 39.6% of the number of statistical member enterprises, the output of loss-making enterprises accounted for 35.99% of the steel output of member enterprises; the loss of loss-making enterprises was 14.759 billion yuan, an increase of 40.45%.

The differentiation of benefits among enterprises has intensified. In the first half of this year, the benefits of enterprises along the eastern coast of the Yangtze River were better than those of the inland and western regions. Under the current low price of imported iron ore, the advantages of enterprises along the eastern coast are more obvious. At the same time, the differentiation of benefits among enterprises has intensified. Some enterprises have achieved good economic benefits in the most difficult period. Some of them have shortage of funds, and the operation has serious difficulties. The survival of a few enterprises is unsustainable and faces the danger of being out. From January to May, the top 10 companies earned a total profit of 12.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 130%; the top 10 companies lost a total loss of 11.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71%, and the gap between enterprises is rapidly widening. The better the efficiency of the enterprise, the greater the effectiveness of the quality improvement, and the less effective the efficiency of the enterprise, the smaller the effectiveness. For the steelmaking pig iron manufacturing cost alone, the gap between enterprises is as high as 500-900 yuan per ton; the profitable enterprise has a profit of more than 200 yuan per ton of steel, and the profit of the enterprise has a loss of more than 1,000 yuan per ton of steel; in terms of labor productivity, part The annual per capita steel production of the enterprise is about 1,000 tons, and the annual per capita steel sales income is as high as three or four million yuan. In some enterprises, the annual per capita steel production is less than 200 tons, and the annual per capita steel sales income is only four hundred and fifty thousand yuan, 5-10. The gap is a lot of problems. Looking at the enterprises with good benefits, some have obvious advantages in brand and quality. The price of single products can be higher than other enterprises by more than 2,000 yuan. Some are after long-term reform, innovation, transformation and development, and have achieved good economic benefits after entering the difficult period of the industry. Some are Continuously reduce costs and increase efficiency, and maximize the benefits of all production factors.

Steel exports face huge trade friction pressures. From January to May, the country exported 43.52 million tons of steel, up 28.2% year-on-year; imported steel was 5.49 million tons, down 10.3% year-on-year. From January to May, the cumulative net export of steel was equivalent to 39.61 million tons of crude steel, an increase of 10.63 million tons, an increase of 36.68%. Maintaining such an export volume is conducive to alleviating the contradiction between supply and demand in the domestic market, but from the current situation, it faces great pressure on trade friction.

Situation analysis and key work in the second half of the year

General Secretary Xi Jinping recently pointed out that at present, China's economic development presents three major characteristics: speed change, structural optimization and power conversion. Adapting to the new normal, grasping the new normal, and leading the new normal are the great logic of China's economic development at present and in the future. It has become a consensus that China's economic development has entered a new normal. The slowdown in economic growth and the changes in the market environment brought about by economic restructuring will have a profound impact on the steel industry. The Development Research Center of the State Council believes that in the past, China's economic growth relied mainly on high investment, and the economic growth rate bottomed out, that is, the growth rate of investment bottomed out, which can be described as three “boots” of infrastructure, real estate and export. At present, two “boots” for infrastructure investment and export have been successively launched. When real estate investment falls back into place, coupled with the growth of new growth points, and the withdrawal and restructuring of severely surplus industries, China's economic growth is expected to bottom out. However, from the 43-month decline in the PPI of steel products, it will take time for the steel industry to bottom out. The primary problem facing the transformation and upgrading of the steel industry is to solve the problems of serious overcapacity, severe oversupply in the market, falling prices of products, and large losses in enterprises.

On the other hand, the implementation of the national “Belt and Road” strategy, the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and the orderly development of the economic belt in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River have also provided transformation opportunities for the steel industry. On May 19th, the "Made in China 2025" issued by the State Council put forward five strategic measures of adhering to innovation drive, persisting in quality first, adhering to green development, adhering to structural optimization, strengthening strategic support and guarantee, and promoting the implementation of smart manufacturing and industrial strong base. Five major projects in green manufacturing, high-end equipment innovation and manufacturing innovation centers. After years of construction and development, the steel industry has continuously optimized its product structure, organizational structure and technical equipment, and its quality has continued to improve. According to the requirements of "Made in China 2025", the steel industry should accelerate reform and innovation, take a new step, and strive to be at the forefront in the process of manufacturing becoming bigger and stronger. This is not only the need for the transformation and development of the manufacturing industry, but also the steel industry. Strong key.

To adapt to the new normal and to grasp the new normal, the steel industry must actively carry out structural adjustment and transformation and upgrading. Structural adjustment, transformation and upgrading, etc. are not allowed, can not wait, can not wait, look down on, take the initiative to adjust, take the initiative to turn, early transfer early to benefit early. Leaders of iron and steel enterprises should not be too entangled in short-term difficulties and gains and losses. It is necessary to realize that structural adjustment will be accompanied by painful exploration and struggle; if there is merit, it will not be in my realm, and it will continue to advance until the realization. The strategic goal of enterprise transformation and upgrading. To this end, the steel industry should be based on the current long-term plan, and strive to do the following five aspects:

First, the whole industry should take risk prevention, control production, stabilize the market, and increase efficiency as the primary task.

At present, the whole industry is on the verge of profit and loss, the economic benefits of enterprises are clearly differentiated, and some enterprises have increased operational risks, especially the capital risks are more prominent. Most enterprises are also facing difficulties such as bank pressure, loans, and loans, and the capital chain is extremely tight. Therefore, the first thing to prevent risks is to ensure that the capital chain does not break.

In strengthening the self-discipline of the industry, the most direct and effective way for enterprises to tide over the difficulties is to control production and conscientiously abide by the self-discipline requirements of “no money, no delivery, no contract, no production, no cost, no production”. The fundamental requirement for controlling production is to achieve efficient production and not to engage in "blood-loss" production. Only through the industry and enterprise self-discipline to control the production work, the goal of stabilizing the market and increasing efficiency can be achieved. In addition, the association will also actively appeal to the government to increase comprehensive governance, crack down on illegal activities such as counterfeiting and selling, tax evasion and tax evasion, safeguard the interests of law-abiding enterprises, and build a fair competitive market environment.

Strengthening industry self-discipline is not only in the domestic market, but also in the international market. At present, the industry faces great trade friction pressure. Strengthening industry and enterprise self-discipline and orderly export are the only effective measures to safeguard the interests of the industry and enterprises. Appeal to business leaders in this regard to raise awareness, form a consensus, and consciously achieve the requirements of self-discipline and self-discipline.

Second, we must further promote the work of expanding key industries such as the application of steel structures.

At present, the progress of the promotion and application of steel structures in China is still slow. Although it has been widely used in the fields of super high-rise, large-span space structure and industrial plants, there is still room for improvement in the application of residential and urban construction. The steel industry should rely on the established industrial technology innovation alliance, continue to promote the research and development and application of steel products through the cooperation and cooperation of upstream and downstream industries, focus on expanding the application range of high-end products, improve the application efficiency of steel products, and promote the whole life of steel products. Cycle reduction and greening. Through the industrial technology innovation strategic alliance, we can explore the modes and methods of solving the homogenization competition of high-end products. Through the coordination of product development and application, we can solve the problem of vicious competition from the source, and guide the application of products through product evaluation norms.

Third, actively promote the implementation of relevant fiscal and taxation policies.

Some policy adjustments in the first half of the year have begun to bear fruit, but some policy adjustments are still pending research. The association will continue to cooperate with government departments to do relevant work and prompt the relevant policies to be adjusted as soon as possible. Enterprises should also actively participate in the policy research work organized by the association. On the one hand, they should propose policy recommendations on relevant tax and fee adjustments. On the other hand, please report to the Association on the problems encountered by the enterprises in the implementation process.

Fourth, accelerate the transformation and upgrading of the steel industry and strive to achieve green development.

In accordance with the requirements of "Made in China 2025" and "Steel Industry Transformation and Development Action Plan (2015-2017)", we will accelerate the pace of industrial transformation and upgrading, and form a group of world-class enterprises with first-class products, first-class technology, first-class environment and first-class management. The Association will actively cooperate with the effective implementation of the action plan to provide necessary assistance and support for the transformation and development of enterprises, and accelerate the transformation of steel enterprises from manufacturing to manufacturing services.

Enterprises must tighten the string of environmental protection, there must be no luck, implement environmental responsibility, improve environmental protection facilities, and strictly comply with the standards. In addition, there is still a gap between the energy consumption of China's iron and steel enterprises and foreign advanced steel enterprises. The association will also actively organize industry forces to study technologies and measures to reduce energy consumption, promote low-carbon development and green development of the steel industry, and develop with the city.

Fifth, we must firmly grasp the development opportunities for implementing the "One Belt, One Road" strategy.

The “One Belt, One Road” strategy involves planning more than 60 countries along the route and planning six major economic corridors. The investment scale may be as high as US$6 trillion. The steel industry should pay close attention to it, do its homework, and actively participate. Three suggestions are proposed in terms of international business cooperation: First, we must thoroughly study the economic environment, legal environment, and political environment of countries along the route. In the process of going out of China's enterprises, they often encounter problems such as unfamiliarity with local market rules and lack of understanding of laws and regulations, which leads to legal disputes or trade disputes. Enterprises should try to avoid this risk in the process of building the “Belt and Road”. Second, it is necessary to conduct in-depth study of the demand situation of countries along the line, adopt different response measures for different market needs, and achieve targeted; third, we must systematically sort out relevant enterprises and participation methods that can participate in the “Belt and Road” construction, and study the most suitable for participation. Ways and means can not only provide related products, but also be able to cooperate in all aspects of technology, capital, talents, design solutions, engineering technology and so on.

In short, the situation facing the steel industry in the second half of the year will remain grim. The new normal has raised many challenges for the steel industry, and there are also many opportunities for development. The steel industry must review the situation, overcome difficulties, adapt to the new normal, grasp the new normal, drive the transformation and development of the steel industry with innovation, and make new innovations for the steel industry. Contribution.

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